As the rainy season approaches,
I was reminded of the hot summer days while taking a morning walk and seeing large flowers glistening between the hydrangeas.

Looking at the global situation, while Russia and the United States are maneuvering skillfully, Ukraine remains in a difficult position, forced to continue fighting on the European side.
Fortunately, European nations are beginning to realize that future support from the U.S. cannot be taken for granted, and they are starting to seek unity independent of America.

Germany, the U.K., and France in particular are strengthening their military capabilities—fighters, tanks, and naval power—and are expected to rapidly enhance their national defense in the near future.

Meanwhile in Japan, the Minister of Agriculture made an irresponsible statement, saying that “there is no rice shortage because it’s coming in through unofficial routes,” prompting the Prime Minister to immediately dismiss him.
He was replaced by Shinjiro Koizumi, who has shown a very motivated attitude. Expectations are high that he will resolve this national issue effectively.
With this momentum, his administration may gain strength. If achieving results becomes the norm, Mr. Koizumi could score significant political points.

Judging from former President Trump’s remarks and actions, the U.S. seems unlikely to directly intervene should a crisis arise in the Taiwan Strait.
A sudden conflict between Japan and China seems unlikely, but we must assess the situation calmly.
If Japan keeps watching only the U.S.'s moves as it has done so far, it risks falling behind.

Should the U.S. abandon Japan and Taiwan, Japan will be forced to act based on its own judgment.
For Japan, which has lived under the umbrella of U.S. security, this represents a major turning point.

European countries have already begun forging independent policies based on their assessment of the U.S.
As the U.S. withdraws from Europe, Germany, the U.K., and France are rushing to bolster their weapons procurement and defense systems.
Likewise, Taiwan and Japan may become potential targets in the future. The U.S. will likely limit its support to arms sales, avoiding direct military intervention.

Eventually, ethnically Chinese Taiwanese may gain more political influence. If a pro-China party wins an election in Taiwan, and U.S. support is absent, Taiwan could fall under China’s sway.

So what should Japan do?
Now is the time to think seriously about our national defense and diplomatic policy.
Whether the U.S. will truly protect Japan remains uncertain, and we must not follow blindly.

Yes, Japan does host U.S. bases and exports goods that the U.S. buys at high prices—but this is all under assumptions that may not hold in the future.

The world is shrinking, and conflicts are emerging across the globe.
In the near future, clashes may arise between India and Pakistan, Iran and Israel, or even North Korea and South Korea—or North Korea and Japan.

Although Japan is currently a peaceful and stable country, labor shortages have led to an influx of foreign nationals, and the number of naturalized citizens is increasing.
As of March 2025, there are 690,000 naturalized citizens from South Korea, 661,700 from China, and 522,900 from Taiwan.

South Korea’s next likely president, Mr. Lee Jae-myung, is known for his critical stance toward Japan.
While he may speak of friendship on the surface, he is not someone Japan can afford to trust easily.
He is expected to lean toward China and distance himself from the U.S.
If relations with North Korea improve, the two countries may begin cooperating.

In Taiwan, Chinese nationals and ethnically Chinese Taiwanese returning from the mainland are expected to gradually increase China’s influence.
With U.S. Taiwan policy growing uncertain, Japan must seriously consider its own future and reassess its role as a peaceful nation.

We must reevaluate our national defense policy to prevent being invaded like Ukraine.
For decades, Japan has lived in peace under U.S. protection, but those days may be over.

If we observe Mr. Trump’s stance, it’s clear that Japan could face increased financial burdens in the future.
Therefore, Japan must act quickly to develop its own ability to respond independently.

We need to advance research and development of drones, fighter jets, and submarines to the point where we can even export them to the U.S.—otherwise, it will be difficult to survive in the international community.

As conflicts begin to erupt around the world, Japan—as an island nation—still has options to avoid war.
Now is the time to think seriously about how we can avoid being drawn into future conflicts.

No one desires war.
War brings enormous waste and loss, and in order to prevent it, we must be prepared—military readiness is essential.

Today, Japanese swords are gaining more global interest than ever before.
Many people treasure them, continuing a tradition that began before the war.
However, many Japanese swords were taken overseas after the war.

Recently, more and more foreigners have come to appreciate the beauty of Japanese swords, visiting Japan to purchase them in person.

Cherish your grandparents.
Spend time kindly with your father and mother.
Take time to talk to your children and build close connections with them.
Let us instill kindness, cheerfulness, and simplicity in the next generation.

With that, I bid you all farewell.

Kazushige Tsuruta