Dear friends,

I hope this message finds you all in good health.

Although the rainy season has officially begun here in Tokyo, we’ve had surprisingly little rain, and it already feels as though the season is nearing its end.

Meanwhile, in the United States, former President Trump has caused quite a stir. His recent actions appear to have temporarily de-escalated the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, the war between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of ceasing, with both sides unwilling to withdraw. No one knows when it might come to an end.

One of the most pressing issues is the enormous deficit the United States now carries. Trump is making every effort to push this burden onto the global stage. Japan, which has long relied on the U.S. security umbrella, is now being told to defend itself independently. He has urged Europe to allocate 5% of its annual income toward national defense in preparation for future conflicts.

As a result, European countries are coming to grips with the idea that they can no longer depend on the U.S. for assistance, and are seriously reevaluating their defense strategies. The same message has been delivered to Japan. It is becoming increasingly clear that the United States will not provide financial or military aid to Japan in the future. Japan must now face the reality of managing its own security and dealing directly with the threats posed by China, North Korea, and Russia. Without America's support, Japan must reconsider how it will navigate the coming challenges.

Forming stronger ties with Asian nations, India, Australia, and New Zealand may become the only viable path forward. At present, Japan's economic strength makes it possible to rise to these challenges. However, favorable conditions will not last forever. If we do not prepare wisely, the situation could become dire.

The United States’ national debt has grown to an astronomical 5,435 trillion yen. Even Trump can no longer credibly claim that America is the world’s policeman. Europe, too, has begun to say, “We must deal with our own regional threats without relying on U.S. support.” That may be an unavoidable conclusion.

Recently, Trump even stated that Japan should raise tariffs by 30–35%. It is now imperative that Japan reconsiders the overly close relationship it has maintained with the U.S., or it may not be able to compete in the future. For instance, Nippon Steel has accepted U.S. proposals and is now attempting to restructure its operations in America. But American labor costs are extremely high, and it remains to be seen whether this transition will go smoothly.

The world has grown smaller, and armed conflicts are erupting across many regions. While the Iran-Israel confrontation has been temporarily defused by U.S. intervention, it seems only a matter of time before violence resurfaces. The general view is that the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue indefinitely. Russia’s attacks have destroyed countless buildings, hospitals, apartments, and offices in Ukraine. Rebuilding will require massive resources. The war has claimed many lives, leaving sorrow, suffering, and resentment in its wake. One must ask—what purpose does such war serve?

Regrettably, war will likely continue somewhere in the world. One can only hope that peace will return soon.

Turning now to the subject of swords, preferences can vary greatly among collectors. The other day, a gentleman brought to my shop a sword regarded as a masterpiece despite being unsigned. Although it had received high praise at the Sword Museum, I personally did not rate it very highly.

When I asked what price he hoped to sell it for, he asked me instead what I would offer. I valued it below the museum’s appraisal, and he left with visible dissatisfaction.

Evaluating swords is never easy—especially unsigned ones. Even if a museum gives a high appraisal, I may still decline to do so. With mumei (unsigned) works, appraisal is particularly difficult. If there are no known signed examples, someone like me has no grounds to make a firm judgment.

For example, while only three tanto are considered genuine works signed by Masamune, the Sword Museum attributes nearly 60 unsigned swords—katana, wakizashi, and tanto alike—to Masamune. While some were judged by famous appraisers, it is difficult to say with certainty that all are correct. That is why, in my view, we should refrain from hastily attributing unsigned works to renowned smiths.

One such sword I viewed recently was said to be a famous piece, but the color of the tang was unappealing, and I could not highly evaluate it. The blade featured a gunome-style hamon, with a pattern that rose near the kissaki. From this, I surmised it to be a Muromachi period work.

Appraisals must be strict. We should not allow the number of so-called “masterpieces” to increase without proper scrutiny. If newly discovered signed swords continue to appear where none were known before, even the credibility of the Sword Museum may be called into question.

The foreign customer who brought that sword left visibly upset. It was not a particularly pleasant day for me, either.

On the other hand, another visitor brought in a sword attributed to Kotetsu on consignment. After carefully cleaning the nakago (tang), the signature became clearly visible, and with further polishing, the sword revealed itself to be a fine work. The customer returned the next day and examined the sword intently, leaving satisfied and happy.

We are seeing more and more people bringing in swords on consignment. With proper care and maintenance, a sword can become remarkably beautiful again.

Lastly, please cherish your grandparents and your wife. Take time to go out to a stream or river with your family and enjoy nature together. Raise your children with discipline and warmth. Nurture them to be kind, bright, modest, and hardworking, with shining eyes and a spirit that strives toward excellence.

With warm regards,

Tsuruta Kazushige